Tuesday, April 29, 2008

A Second "Arduous March"?

Dr. Andrei Lankov has an article up on Asia Times about the prospects of another major famine in North Korea.

Among the North Korean population there is widespread talk about a "second Arduous March" (the "Arouse [sic] March" being a somewhat pompous official name for the "Great Famine" which killed between 500,000 and 1 million people between 1996-1999). International experts seem to agree. Tony Banbury, the World Food Program (WFP) regional director for Asia, said in mid-April: "The food security situation in the DPRK [Democratic People's Republic of Korea] is clearly bad and getting worse. It is increasingly likely that external assistance will be urgently required to avert a serious tragedy."

This change of mood is dramatic. Merely a year ago, North Korean leaders were optimistic. The good harvest of 2005 persuaded them that food shortages were behind them, and that North Korean agriculture had begun to recover. The 2005 harvest was merely 4.6 million tons, well below the 5.2 million tons which are necessary to keep the entire population alive. Still, it was clearly an improvement.

It's looking more and more like a perfect storm of rising food prices, posturing against the new South Korean administration, and a poor harvest could lead to a very bad next few years in North Korea.

Read the whole article for more info. It's a little long, but well worth the read.

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